Psychology, Stock Market

Intraday Market Activity Schedule

Typical intraday market cycle is surprisingly precise:

All times are Eastern.

Market opens

9:50am – 10:10am
First reversal

10:10am – 10:25am
Upswing (on a positive day)

10:25am – 10:30am
Minor shift

Lunch time. Stocks begin drifting down. On a bearish day, however, stocks may rally for a bit.

1:30pm – 2:30pm
Fresh action. On a positive day – breakout possible. Can also dive and crash during this time.

Next reversal (Treasury Bonds close)

Highly volatile period. Even strong stocks can fall easily.

I don’t remember in details the psychology behind this schedule. I’ve been tracking 2 stocks – one on NYSE, one on TSX-Venture – for the past couple of weeks. This cycle is amazingly reliable, I would say in at least 80% of the time. Keep in mind this is a very small sample in a short period of time 😉

One would think TSX-Venture listed stocks shouldn’t be affected by this American cycle, but I’ve come to conclusion that Canadian stocks follow the US market a lot closer than they do European or Asian. Take today for example – Asian and Euro markets closed higher, U.S. market was closed, and TSX and TSX-V, as if not sure what to do without the U.S. quietly drifted sideways and down respectively. Since Toronto and NYC operate on the same time, it’s also quite natural to take breaks around the same periods.

Even if you’re not a day trader, this schedule may help to time the market in a small way when buying shares for long-term holding.

The markets have been pretty negative and boring in my parts for the past 2 weeks, so I’m really looking forward to some positive action. I’m transferring more money into our brokerage account, and want to trade this week. I’m thinking of renaming my blog to “Degenerate Investor (or Trader)”. Does it fit yet?