Phantasmix Stock Market Blog

Investors have heard many decry the decade of the 2000s as the “lost decade.” A dollar invested in the S&P 500 on the first trading day of 1999 saw it worth just 65 cents a decade later (3/31/09 is our cutoff point). This “underperformance” is seen by many as a failure of the U.S. economic engine.

If we look at the Top 20 performers of the S&P 500 during that same time period, we see a vastly different story. Instead of a 35% loss during that time, the Top 20 earned an average 426% return in stock price, excluding dividends. What accounted for this differential performance during this “lost decade?”

The rest is kind of TLDR, but if you’re curious, the source:
Lessons from S&P Recession Survivors [PDF]

A bear flag on S&P index. Frankly I expected something like a June bottom, but it doesn’t look like that so far. Maybe it will move up after a quick retest?

I haven’t sold anything yet, still holding March SPY puts, April SPY calls and some now-penny-stockish t*rds BEE and LYG.

Click to enlarge

3 months of advances on SPX was erased in 13 sessions, or 3 weeks.
They say it’s a sign of a bull market – small steady advances and quick vicious sell-offs.

There hasn’t been a whole lot of institutional buying so far.

As predicted, I’m tempted to hold SPY puts over the weekend, but last 12 Mondays in a row were UP days. What to do, what to do…