SKF, and Other Double-Inverse ETFs

As soon as I put something in writing I’m often proven wrong, but anyway, here it goes —
[[SKF]] will never reach $200 again.

Everything below can also be said about all other Ultra ETFs.

• Exhibit 1, SKF:VIX chart

Even if it’s not the top for the VIX yet, SKF is having trouble gaining much, even on increased volume.

• Exhibit 2, Math

As already discussed, SKF is mathematically destined to go to “0”. Since nothing goes up or down in a straight line, all double (Ultra) ETFs lose.

• And finally, Exhibit 3, Bull vs. Bear Case

Stocks go up over time.

Of course, for trading SKF is just perfect. I’d be scared to death to buy and hold it. To short and hold it, on the other hand, is safe and just about guaranteed to make you money.

(I’m being somewhat dishonest… I’m not scared, but certainly uncomfortable being short SKF at such a low number ($112.39). But not planning to cover for a loss, because this is a pretty clear case in my favor.)