Long-Term Investing

Market Seasonality Links




There’s more information available if you just do a simple search for “market seasonality” but most of the sites just re-iterate the same main idea:

In both bull and bear markets, the market makes most of its gains in a four to seven month period between fall and the following spring. The time to plant new holdings then is in the fall, and the time to reap the profits is in the spring.

Source: http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAcourse/Seasonality.html

Based on the above, I analyzed my stock ‘buys’ and ‘sells’ and can conclude that I bought in at the wrong time of the year in 2007. That’s a sad realization, I tell ya… Now I see all these stocks that went down a lot since I bought them, and I want to average down on them. However averaging down has bit me in the a** 4 times already and that’s lesson enough (the suckers kept going down after I averaged down). I can just hope the recovery will be enough to reach highs that are at or above my buy levels.

Anyway, seasonality is fascinating. This is something I will test come next fall. I’ll allocate, say, 20% to this “buy in fall, sell in spring” technique…