Stock Market

$$ Is It the Top? Semi-Contrarian Case

Hmmm, EVERY single stock (and even some non-stock ones!) blog I subscribe to are basically saying “the top is in”. I only see one notable exception so far.

I don’t have any positions except long LYG at this time, therefore I’m not voting much with money. However, I’m going to be contrarian here and say that the market has almost bottomed.

Based on:

  • Significant buying of indices and bellwether stocks on weakness over the past week. I admit that’s pretty anecdotal.
  • Speaking of $SPX (S&P 500 index), there’s a positive price/oscillator divergence on the daily chart. Ok, that’s some technical analysis.
  • $SPX closed at 34ema on the weekly, that’s a pretty strong support level. May dip a bit lower than that, but could be just intraday?

I do find it surprising that as of May 6th, there weren’t more bears. This is a hole in my contrarian case.

Speaking of TA, that’s another dent in my theory – still overbought on the weekly chart, regardless of the current price support.

Click to enlarge

My eternal sentiment 🙂