Long-Term Investing

Is a Correction Coming?

According to the Motley Fool – not yet. Their opinion is based on fairly reasonable P/E ratios across Russell indices:

  • Russell Top 50 (Mega cap): P/E 16.0
  • Russell Top 200 (Large cap): P/E 16.4
  • Russell Midcap: P/E 19.6
  • Russell 2000 (Small cap): P/E 20.5
  • Russell Microcap: P/E 20.8

Compare that to 3-figure P/E’s of the late 90’s and you may get a nice warm feeling about current market state. So you don’t become over-confident here’s a sobriety bit:

Earnings don’t tell the whole story
Of course, the market’s performance going forward isn’t at all governed by what’s happened in the trailing 12-month period. Our guess is that these heavy short bets are less bets against the valuations of small-cap stocks, but rather based on the theory that the confluence of rising interest rates and rising energy prices will thwack consumer confidence, sending the whole economy into a downturn.

And when that happens, earnings that have been growing rapidly will cease doing so — and stocks will fall. Previously fast-growing small caps will likely get hit hardest. But while that may be true for the index, it’s absolutely not true across individual stocks.

We remain invested in MICRO-cap stocks, which are historically the most volatile. Cautiously sitting on this bullish “wall of worry”. Sitting, not climbing, because we’re not investing anymore at this point, just holding. But I will be looking to dump a few stocks before our vacation; wouldn’t want to get stuck without the internet if markets decide to crash.

Original article