I’m getting lots of site visitors looking for the Depression-era charts. It’s been a popular topic ever since the crash, BUT now more than ever. That’s a contrary indicator, in my opinion.
As for the retail investor sentiment, it shifted far towards the bearish side, very fast.
That’s another contrary indicator.
I don’t want to be short here.
Investor sentiment seems to be a pretty good measure of where the prices will go in the very short term.
Today’s update shows that bullish sentiment rose from 30%+ last week to about 45% this week. Looks like the price has further to go.
Click to enlarge
I can’t determine where we are in this cycle
Yesterday I got a phone call from a large Canadian bank. The guy on the phone introduced himself as a financial advisor, and asked me “What is your investment strategy?” Just like that 🙂 Made me smile. Then, he went on to say that it’s such a wonderful time to enter the market and there are lots of investment opportunities.
And today (!), that’s 2 days in a row of “assault”, I got a survey about my attitude towards the stock market and how I was affected by the crisis. Their questions were extremely intrusive and very detailed. They really wanted to know my level of market savvy, even asked if I trade options and bonds. (I didn’t fill it out, of course.)
A mass stock promo campaign is starting! I think that’s a sign that the money managers are confident — the bear market is over.
I’m not experienced enough to know – at what stage of the bull cycle does this happen?
I’m getting more and more visitors who search for “triple bull s&p” and similar terms. Lots of “triple bull” searches. It started about 2 weeks ago.
Still quite a few “Great Depression charts” visitors but a lot fewer than in winter/early spring.
Of course, working with a very small sample here, but I’ll still be watching keywords for sentiment changes.
And here’s what’s going on with the “Great Depression” searches according to Google Trends. Looks like we’re entering a seasonal GD lull 🙂