Last Trade Today: AUY
I now deserve the “flip-flop” handle: was afraid of gold in the morning, but look at this…
[[AUY]], Yamana Gold, closed strongly so I felt safe enough to buy some at $8.65. Unlike with SLW (which also had a gap above), I will try to not get scared out of it and will hold until the gap is filled. This is a very small position, but I expect a relatively big move. The gap was down $10.69 to $10.29.
I’m holding 6 stocks over the weekend.
It’s a tough market not to get shaken out of….. I know you don’t believe it, but the move in the dollar is just some retracement. In 2 months it undid a full year’s worth of damage… a little back and fill, isn’t surprising.
I expected it earlier.
Eric,
I’m not planning to stay in this trade long, hopefully long enough to have that gap filled, that’s all.
I’m not sure what to believe anymore, but I won’t be holding my money in the U.S. dollar (If don’t understand what’s up – avoid 🙂 )
Are you holding anything but long financials?
tons of commodities and I’m building a position in transports.
I bet you are good, till we capitulate.. Like tuesday.
Here is a dollar theory…. Most of the decline could be because “We have our heads up our asses, more than everyone else”. But the “Sea change” is that finally we have pulled them out, to face the music…. which is dollar positive….. the more we face the music… the more dollar positive it is.
I’m a bit nervous about AUY, I think it may mirror the SLW scenario from last week when I got shaken out. I’ll keep the “rhyming history” in mind. (However, I only have 200 shares so I’m not that worried.)
I’m watching the transports, think it’s early to accumulate, but you know much more than I do.
Here’s a question for you: if there’s a rate cut on Tuesday, will you believe that the dollar was manipulated up in order not to have it totally decimated by the rate cut?
I think ‘some’ of the current down momentum in the dollar is predictive of a 20% chance of a rate cut. and if LEH collapses, they will cut.
For Millions of years people have tried to manipulate markets, and as is the Market Mantra “nobody is bigger than the market”. Sometimes for short periods of time you can Corner the market, or create a monopoly. but as Microsoft is learning…. Just because you have “cornered the market” doesn’t mean you are invulnerable. As Mac, and Linix can attest… “market forces” take over, and re balance the market.
they are the laws of supply and demand, and you can’t fight them, Even the Easy money fed is getting a dose of “Market reality”, as many of the chickens from 30 years of being “too easy”.. have come to roost.
but if Trying to build a sound financial environment, is “manipulating the market”, then I guess you can do it.. I mean, you can say “The US’s poor Fiscal discipline, and irresponsible economic and social policies have “manipulated the dollar down” for the past 6 years.”
1.60 to the euro, was decimated. And shit, the whole system could come down on monday, and we will all be negotiating with the government to get our brokerage accounts back over the next 6 months.
Having “come to Jesus” with the financial markets, is Dollar positive. If the market were an Alcoholic, you want to “go Long” at the intervention and Rehab… but you make more money at a successful the intervention, than at rehab or after rehab, or after 30 days, or 90 or 1 year or 3 years.
but the Explorers get the arrows and the settlers get the land.
We will probably still hit that VIX 30 turn, and that is when to think about transports…. maybe. One can never be sure.
I don’t believe in Jesus, unicorns, politicians, ghosts, gobblins, boogymen, Pixies, or conspiracies(ok there are some overt ones).
The dollar just runs out of sellers at one point. gold runs out of buyers, AAPL and RIMM run out of believers.
The market went down, because there were more sellers than buyers, and the market goes up because there are more buyers than sellers.
there are always chances of some stupid “intervention” but… it never works in the long term.
and LEH is no where near as important as FNM FRE. so… this “crisis” is smaller.
I don’t mean to argue.. or whatever.. There are tons of conspiracy and manipulation theories, and they generally turn out to be something else. I thought “PPT” for a while, then realized the weird motion in the futures market was probably one idiot at Soc gen… trying to get “Even”.
Occam’s razor says “it’s usually the simplest answer that is the correct one.”
Running out of sellers, is much simpler than Treasury dumping unknown billions into Forex.