Comments on: BAC, MER

By: Phantasmix

Phantasmix — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 21:53:06 +0000

MER finished lower than Friday’s close, and I’m actually in the green with it!
(so far, who knows what the morning will bring)

By: Eric Davis

Eric Davis — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 09:01:52 +0000

Mer 24.90 ask

By: Eric Davis

Eric Davis — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 08:51:31 +0000

I’m good…. Doesn’t make me want to be flat in case of a “Black monday”

The commodites trades will be fine….Transports ok.

Honestly…. I hate to say it… it’s the unknown, hating uncertainty…. how much forced liquidation will there be… that is the question.
there will be panic…. but We know how that trades, the question is… how much forced liquidation.

Leh going bankrupt won’t have retail throwing their stocks away. 1200 point down day might.

By: Phantasmix

Phantasmix — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 06:49:23 +0000

You don’t have much on the line, do you? I thought you had only started small positions in some.

By: Eric Davis

Eric Davis — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 06:32:54 +0000

I just wish I was flat….

By: Phantasmix

Phantasmix — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 06:03:14 +0000

The boards voted, but nothing is signed yet. I didn’t phrase it correctly. They can still pretend it may happen but in the end it doesn’t. Nobody from either company commented on this and it’s not signed. Plus again – stock deal? MER will not see $29 even if it goes through eventually.

I’m probably in denial, but not covering at $29!!! Getting delirious 🙂 it’s late.

In any case, don’t have to do anything about it tomorrow. The worst thing would probably be to cover at open.

I won’t be adding to MER then, you’re right, that’s crazy… but still want to short SKF. What’s wrong with that?

By: Eric Davis

Eric Davis — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 05:55:57 +0000

That deal has been inked, the board has voted and approved. no rumor, no manipulation.

“Merrill Lynch, the world’s largest broker, agreed to be acquired by Bank of America for $29 a share, or $43.5 billion, after being pressured into a deal by federal regulators”

Merrill lynch, AGREED TO BE ACQUIRED by bank of America. That isn’t a rumor.

The market is going to dip down huge, this reminds me of jan, when we struggled for 2 days, but the low was hit in the first 30 minutes of the first day of the market.

The financials will be clobbered tomorrow, Down 10% at the open, Most the market heat will be in financial names, Market down 3% financials will be “Most of it”.

My biggest mistakes have been when I refuse to “Take my Medicine”, It’s one thing to watch it trade for a bit, and see how it’s behaving. and it’s another thing to “Try and get Even” or slide down the slope of hope. One of the Gartman Rules is “NEVER ADD TO A LOSING TRADE”

your best hope is that there is some stock selling pressure as somebody is forced to liquidate Merrill shares and you get a small dip.

The best negative case is that we get selling for 2 days, Monday a down 400 or 500 day. and a reversal day.

I wish I was flat, and am likely to not trade tomorrow, I may puke some stuff just for safety.

But a nice spike reversal isn’t unlikely, nor would a low being set in the futures.

It is possible that the Low is being set IN THE FUTURES.

This is the hardest part of the market, and as we have seen, even being right…. we are likely to be shaken out. Sometimes it’s best not to play.

If the fed doesn’t cut by the open… they won’t do it….. which is good for the economy, it means they are worried about inflation.