Phantasmix Stock Market Blog

SPDR S&P Retail Index

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Short/buy puts on a bounce

I’m Ursa Minor at the moment and if there’s a pop in the morning, I’ll go full bear.

Here are some charts to back up my stance.

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Summation Index

Heading south

New Lows

As you see, it usually reverts to the mean. This chart is for NASDAQ; NYLOW looks about the same.

BKX – Bank Index

Overbought. You might think that the banks were very oversold, but what has changed to warrant further advances? Nothing. I say this is enough. Technical pressure relief played out.

$US – US Dollar

Dollar looks like it may try getting above resistance? Not sure, the candle is black, so maybe it’ll revisit the support area first.

Sleeping Bear

Join me? Or are you a bull?

Have a profitable day!

Though I dislike trading oil and natural gas, PennWest seems like a fairly low risk short trade. TSX ticker is PWT, but I prefer NYSE-listed (PWE: 21.50 -2.41%).

Trade: short PWE
Entry: today’s close or on morning pop
Target: $12.15, once reached, I may move the stop to this level and let it go to maybe $11
Stop: $0.50 above entry
Risk: $0.50
Potential profit: $1.30-$1.80

Why:

• Barely touched the 50dma, but couldn’t break above it, even on fairly strong volume
• Bumping against strong resistance at just under $14
• Unfilled recent gap up from $12.15
• RSI(3) – short term – is at an extremely overbought reading, 96
• Stochastics also showing it’s overbought

I’m hoping for a quick and simple trade. The stop is tight as oil may take the stock above resistance in a flash.

Wouldn’t mind buying this back for its insane yield but not yet.

Click charts to enlarge