Phantasmix Stock Market Blog

Ha, I use 2 different variations of my first name. Depending on that my name anagram comes to BLUNTER SHOVE or NERVOUSLY BEAT. The first one is a disturbingly accurate description of (some of) my traits.

U.S. Dollar

(see, pretty blunt)

Very short term but still, possible falling wedge — a bullish reversal pattern — is developing on the U.S. dollar chart. Imo dollar going up won’t necessarily hurt gold because in the last couple of weeks both gold and the dollar were advancing at the same time, at least a few times.

Click to enlarge

US Dollar Index

I looked at this chart on June 22nd. I wasn’t sure if the pattern that was building was bullish or bearish. It didn’t exactly break out, there’s now an extension to that ‘whatever-it-was’.

And I’m now leaning towards it being a bull flag (= falling wedge).

Dollar daily cycle low is due any day now. Today is day 20 of the daily cycle that usually lasts between 18-28 days according to The Smart Money Tracker.

If current dollar-market relationship doesn’t change, then U.S. dollar going up would be bearish for the market.

Formation still in play. Today the U.S. dollar dropped quite a bit, giving the market a boost.

Click chart to enlarge

Just about everyone is counting on (GS: 98.04 +0.52%) to announce excellent earnings tommorrow and the market to go up. I’m 90% certain that GS will be down tomorrow but not brave enough to buy another “lottery ticket” – I’ve got enough of those at the moment