Source: http://blog.buzzbuzzhome.com/2010/02/ottawa-considers-making-it-harder-to.html

Kiyoko Fujimura
Buzzbuzzhome Corp.
February 12, 2010

You can’t read about Canadian real estate news right now without hearing the word bubble. While we’re still unsure whether or not a bubble is truly in our midst, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is considering policy options to curb a bubble in the housing market. With Toronto housing prices up as much 19% (by some estimates) in one year, it seems like the market needs a readjustment.

Under consideration are two policies. First, an increase in the minimum down payment. Second, a decrease in the maximum length of mortgages (amortization period). The larger down payment or the increase in monthly payments associated with a decrease in the amortization period would leave some potential buyers unable to purchase. This, in turn, should lead to an easing of demand and cooling prices.

Peter Aceto, head of ING, said:

“There are some concerns because of what’s going on with real estate, in terms of rapidly increased property values and the theory they’re being fuelled by very low interest rates, that a bubble is being created similar to what happened in the U.S.” Yourhome.ca

Interest rates have sat at record-low’s for a while now triggering what some are considering a bubble. For further analysis of this trend see my previous blog post here.

Discussion

Given Flaherty’s track record (I, of course, mean the Income Trust debacle), he’s very much capable of doing something drastic.

I’ve been a nervous wreck trying to decide if it’s the time to sell our condo. Real estate agent promos tell me I should sell now!

Future potential negatives for the Canadian, and in particular Toronto, real estate are:

• Property taxes in Toronto are set to increase soon.
• Then we have that stupid HST this summer – instead of 5% people will be paying 13% on closing and legal fees. Not to mention a reduction in disposable income due to all these extra levies and taxes.
• Interest rates, supposed to increase this summer.

By the way, did you notice, they’re heavily advertising government tax relief programs? I see what they’re doing though! Instead of waiting for the income tax revenue (which would probably be lower this year), they will now take their share “on the spot”. You won’t have a choice but to pay.

They end up looking ‘kind of’ good because of the temporary income tax cuts, yet they get to eat their tax pie thanks to the HST.

I know I’m over-simplifying.

Ok, let’s assume they really raise the minimum downpayment or decrease the amortization period. Wouldn’t it mean that people would buy smaller, more affordable units?

What are the signs of a real estate bubble? Everyone says it’s a bubble, and sentiment-wise, I don’t think bubbles are that obvious, right? Or have people wisened up after the US real estate crash?

I need some input. If you were patient enough to read this, please take a minute to voice your opinion. Is Canadian real estate in a bubble? Why or why not? And what would happen if there was another “Flaherty massacre”?

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Source: Times Online

Japan Considering Taxing Cash; “Nominal Rates of -4% Might be Closer to What is Required to Rescue the Economy from Another Deflationary Spiral”

Unorthodox, untried and, said one Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi strategist, “in the realms of economic science fiction”, the recommendation has nevertheless begun floating around Tokyo’s corridors of power and economists have described Japan as particularly suitable as a testing ground.

I don’t know why they say it’s unorthodox and never tried before. Sweden has done it before, albeit in a slightly different form.

Edited to add: “Apart from France, within Europe, Greece, Norway, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Liechtenstein impose a wealth tax, although often with lower rates and higher thresholds of imposition than in France “

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And a quick reminder, GST instalment limits were changed in 2008.

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Here’s a sort of funny dialog from “Stranger Than Fiction” that resonated with me:

Harold Crick: It says, in the file, that you only paid part of your taxes for last year.
Ana Pascal: That’s right.
Harold Crick: Looks like only 78 percent.
Ana Pascal: Yep.
Harold Crick: So you did it on purpose?
Ana Pascal: Yep.
Harold Crick: So you must’ve been expecting an audit.
Ana Pascal: Um, I was expecting a fine, or a sharp reprimand.
Harold Crick: A reprimand? This isn’t boarding school, Miss Pascal. You stole from the government.
Ana Pascal: No I didn’t steal from the government. I just didn’t pay you *entirely*.
Harold Crick: Miss Pascal, you can’t just not pay your taxes.
Ana Pascal: Yes, I can.
Harold Crick: You can if you want to get audited.
Ana Pascal: Only if I recognize your right to audit me, Mr. Crick.
Harold Crick: Miss Pascal, I’m right here auditing you.
Ana Pascal: Listen, I’m a big supporter of fixing potholes and erecting swing sets and building shelters. I am *more* than happy to pay those taxes. I’m just not such a big fan of the percentage that the government uses for national defense, corporate bailouts, and campaign discretionary funds. So, I didn’t pay those taxes. I think I sent a letter to that effect with my return.
Harold Crick: Would it be the letter that begins “Dear Imperialist Swine”?

I find myself thinking more and more that I don’t want to pay taxes, or rather not “entirely” As most people who give it a thought, I at least partially disagree with how the tax money is spent.

Here’s where the Canadian tax dollar goes

Category descriptions in the chart are kind of vague, but they’re explained in detail here: http://www.fin.gc.ca/TaxDollar/text/html/pamphlet_e.html

My web search skills may suck but it was a lot harder to find a clear picture of where the American money goes. Canadian government websites seem to be more straight-forward, like they have less to hide

Here’s where the American tax dollar goes

Note: I put this chart together, therefore the way it’s colored is obviously biased. The big bright blocks comprise 75% of the budget.

The budget should be a reflection of the people’s priorities, whether that’s true or not is a separate question. The major differences are in Defense and Health care allocations. Even if the Healthcare diff. may be due to how federal and state/provincial governments handle things (maybe individual provinces take on more than the states do, for example), but the Defense is clearly a federal expense.

Canadians get offended when people say “they’re just like Americans”, and rightly so, at least our budget is a reflection of the peaceful nation that we are. With this, I end my very much delayed bash of the American-Iraqi war.

Tax spending is a topic for another time, when I start breaking my New Year’s resolutions and go back to my complaining self.

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In addition to lowering GST rate from 6% to 5%, effective January 1, 2008:

The GST/HST threshold for quarterly instalment payments will be increased from $1,500 to $3,000. If you are an annual filer whose net tax for a fiscal year is less than $3,000, you will not need to make quarterly instalment payments throughout the next fiscal year. – Revenue Canada

Don’t let the word “increased” scare you. This is actually good news! Our GST payable (after deductions) is typically between $3-5K, which easily exceeded the $1,500 threshold. We were forced to either do one big prepayment before filing the GST return so the tax payable would be under $1,500, or suffer through the quarterly instalment payments.

Instalments are not a problem, really, but they are a hassle. And if you’re late with one of the instalments, you’ll be penalized. You’re potentially setting yourself up for 3 penalty occasions a year. I always opted for the prepayment option, which is a much smaller hassle: just 1 extra check and 1 extra form to fill out.

This year we have a bunch more ITC’s (input tax credits), so the GST payable may very well be right under the $3,000 threshold.

In conclusion, while this change doesn’t directly mean tax savings, this little change has the potential to make lives a bit easier.

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If you’re running a home-based business and eat your lunch at home most of the time, you may neglect writing off meals thinking “it’s just groceries we’d be buying anyway”. You should keep all your grocery/dining out receipts for the year, and then add a pro-rated amount of meals to your tax return. I didn’t do it in the past either, but for 2007 tax year I’ll be sure to include 1/3 of our grocery bills to our expenses. My 1/3 number is based on “breakfast, lunch and dinner”. Then of course that 1/3 will be further reduced by 50% because you can only write off half the meals (on a Canadian return, anyway).

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What’s even more interesting is the percentage-point change. Canadian, German, Dutch and British tax rates have basically remained the same since 1975. Seems to me there must be a relation to the stability of the economy somehow.

I’m not sure how “Tax revenue as a percentage of G.D.P.” translates into actual average tax rate, though. If Canada’s tax revenue is 33.4% of G.D.P. – is this percentage the average tax rate Canadian households pay?

Sources:

http://www.oecd.org/document/16/0,3343,en_2649_201185_39495248_1_1_1_1,00.html

http://www.oecd.org/document/16/0,3343,en_2649_201185_39495248_1_1_1_1,00.html

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