Phantasmix Stock Market Blog » • SPX S&P 500

$$ $SPY $DIA Market Internals, Charts

Phantasmix — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 19:33:09 +0000

Click charts to enlarge

$BKX, Bank Index

This is in a very ugly territory. It hasn’t been this bad since the start of the 2008-09 “event”.

$BPNYA, NYSE Bullish Percent Index

Crazy sharp drop. Once again, hasn’t been this bad since ’08-09.

$BPSPX, S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index

Same as above

$NYSI, NYSE Summation Index

It’s in the negative territory (dotted line), but I’m most interested here in how it correlates to market prices. It’s pretty good for showing direction but not the size of the move.

$VIX, Volatility Index

An obvious inverse relationship here.

Looks very choppy, sort of a deciding moment.

I think most of these indicate there will be 4-12 weeks of basing action and a continuation of the bull market, but wouldn’t bet real money on it.

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$SPX $SPY $$ A Lost Decade? Not With 426% Return It’s Not

Phantasmix — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 22:19:59 +0000

Investors have heard many decry the decade of the 2000s as the “lost decade.” A dollar invested in the S&P 500 on the first trading day of 1999 saw it worth just 65 cents a decade later (3/31/09 is our cutoff point). This “underperformance” is seen by many as a failure of the U.S. economic engine.

If we look at the Top 20 performers of the S&P 500 during that same time period, we see a vastly different story. Instead of a 35% loss during that time, the Top 20 earned an average 426% return in stock price, excluding dividends. What accounted for this differential performance during this “lost decade?”

The rest is kind of TLDR, but if you’re curious, the source:
Lessons from S&P Recession Survivors [PDF]

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$$ $SPX $SPY Bear Flag

Phantasmix — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 05:29:13 +0000

A bear flag on S&P index. Frankly I expected something like a June bottom, but it doesn’t look like that so far. Maybe it will move up after a quick retest?

I haven’t sold anything yet, still holding March SPY puts, April SPY calls and some now-penny-stockish t*rds BEE and LYG.

Click to enlarge

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$$ SPX $SPY Correction Update, Bull Market or Not?

Phantasmix — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 19:17:05 +0000

3 months of advances on SPX was erased in 13 sessions, or 3 weeks.
They say it’s a sign of a bull market – small steady advances and quick vicious sell-offs.

There hasn’t been a whole lot of institutional buying so far.

As predicted, I’m tempted to hold SPY puts over the weekend, but last 12 Mondays in a row were UP days. What to do, what to do…

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$SPX $SPY Weekly Chart Update

Phantasmix — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 01:19:43 +0000

1,050 on $SPX or thereabouts is a very logical support zone – 34ema and 50ema on the weekly are around there, and stochastics are getting close to oversold finally… Curiously, the top box stochastics – long-term – haven’t moved much.

Around that level, or $105 on SPY, I will sell my SPY puts and will add to the calls. Once it gets to $105, it’ll be tempting to hold to $103, but that’s just greedy.

$$ Bounce Time $SPY $SPX

Phantasmix — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 20:49:46 +0000

Ah, finally – buying on weakness showed up. Approximately $400MM on SPY alone today. Bounce time! (imvho, dyodd blah blah)
Within 1-3 days.

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$$ $SPY SPX Daily Chart Oversold Update

Phantasmix — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 03:43:56 +0000

SPX, S&P 500, looks oversold and the stochastics are where most of the previous bounces happened over the past year, except once. During the first correction there was still lingering fear, March wasn’t a very distant memory in people’s minds. I think these days most are inclined to buy on the dip after many months of steady advances.

Click to enlarge

I watch the WallStJ. buying on strength and selling on weakness lists daily (literally, even when not trading). While it’s not a very reliable short-term predictor of anything (I’m sorta lying, I’ve actually made some good day trades based on large selling or buying volume, but I don’t think it’s necessarily a good predictor for the next day, let’s put it that way), longer term it’s been shown to mean something.

Over the past 5-6 weeks there’s been significant selling on strength on the indices and some big individual stocks, almost every single UP day with only a few exceptions. The total selling on SPY is somewhere between $1.5-2B. There was one big buying day on weakness day and it was close to $400MM, maybe $350MM, I forgot. The net is still a large amount of selling. Over this last little sell-off there hasn’t been any meaningful buying on weakness, none at all really.

$TRIN, the Arms index has been running over 1.0 quite a bit lately as well, meaning in the overall market there have been more shares on the ask than on the bid.

In conclusion, this sell-off may catch everyone off guard, but it’s not based on much more than “more selling than buying”. I don’t have very sophisticated tools for tracking that.

I do have March puts and April calls, so yeah, I want to get rid of them profitably in that order however, I didn’t make up all of the above. And I admit, the daily chart IS OVERSOLD. The weekly is still overbought, in fact, has barely budged.

In the future, very near future, I will be studying arbitrage trading closer, as I’m now much more interested in making money than getting the direction right. I may still try and guess the direction, purely out of interest, but don’t want the $$$ to depend on my opinion which from March to July was way off.

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$BRK Berkshire Hathaway Split, Will Join S&P 500

Phantasmix — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 18:55:03 +0000

OMG, BRK.B is going to split, 50-to-1 and join S&P! That’ll be $66/share at today’s price.

Warren Buffett is likely about to orchestrate one of the biggest changes in years to the financial structure of his company.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is widely expected to approve a 50-to-1 share split of its Class B shares on Wednesday, a move tied to its planned purchase of the railroad giant Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.

With the split, trading volume will likely increase, and that could attract a new group of bigger and faster-trading investors. The B shares closed Friday at $3,247, a lofty price that limited the kind of investors who bought the stock to mostly those with …

Source: WSJ

$SPX $SPY Corrections Are Shallow

Phantasmix — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 21:20:12 +0000

Corrections on SPX have been getting more and more shallow.

(SPY: 134.361 -0.74%) touched 13ema today, and closed above it. Wonder if this is all the reaction we’ll get this time as well. Stochastics are still very overbought, and I’m still betting on a larger drop, holding March SPY puts.

Click to enlarge

$SPX $SPY Weekly Chart Still Overbought

Phantasmix — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 03:36:35 +0000

I’m not sure overbought levels mean anything anymore! I honestly didn’t think SPX would go higher than 1,120-26 (50% retracement), at least not without a reaction/correction. MACD/price divergence continues.

Is the general public in or out of the market? Based on the people I know, they’re IN, but it’s a fairly small sample. And they’re Canadian! May not count. Please vote in the comments – is the general public in or out of the market?

Click to enlarge

Phantasmix Stock Market Blog » • SPX S&P 500

$$ $SPY $DIA Market Internals, Charts

$BKX, Bank Index

$BPNYA, NYSE Bullish Percent Index

$BPSPX, S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index

$NYSI, NYSE Summation Index

$VIX, Volatility Index

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