Phantasmix Stock Market Blog » • SPX S&P 500

S&P Futures Chart $$ $SPY $SPX

Phantasmix — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 03:29:59 +0000

This is a daily chart of the S&P 500 Futures.

Look at the lower boxes. In the lowest one it’s obvious that the small traders are unafraid! A potential contrary indicator right there.

Obviously, not something to base a decision on by itself, but combined with whatever else you’re tracking, might be helpful.

Click to enlarge

I’ve got some skin in the game, and want a bearish move in the short term, a bullish scenario – long-term.

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The Lesser of Two Evils: $SPY vs Individual Stocks $$

Phantasmix — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 18:39:39 +0000

January 1990 through December 2009 (a period of 20 years) a total of 1,003 unique companies have been constituent members of the S&P 500.

Isn’t that crazy? This basically convinces me that owning individual stocks is very risky.

Dissolution of S&P500 is a lot less likely than bankruptcy of any given stock, and you’re at least guaranteed the dividend. Plus the options (for call writing) are very liquid and fairly priced.

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Daily Insider Buy/Sell vs $SPY, Charts

Phantasmix — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 02:56:05 +0000

Latest insider buy/sell stats, as of March 8th.
In addition to this, there’s been some selling on strength of SPY, not super significant but around $150MM yesterday.

And here’s the SPX chart with all the indicators.
Short-term, somewhere half-way between oversold/overbought, but longer term (top stochastics) shows that the index may drop further.

End of transmission

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Daily Insider Buy/Sell vs $SPY, Charts

Phantasmix — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 04:54:29 +0000

Insiders aren’t shopping much lately:

Click to enlarge

And for comparison, here’s the $SPX Chart for the same period

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S&P 500 vs TSX

Phantasmix — Tue, 14 Feb 2012 16:34:14 +0000

S&P500 vs TSX Composite charts. Particularly interesting is the 5-year chart.

There have to be some people who have been waiting for the last 4 years to break even. Wonder if they’ll leave the market once they get there, or will they decide that “markets always go up over time, might as well stay in”? Anyway, looks like that point is relatively close.

Click charts to enlarge

1-Year Chart

5-Year Chart

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$$ $SPY $DIA Market Internals, Charts

Phantasmix — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 19:33:09 +0000

Click charts to enlarge

$BKX, Bank Index

This is in a very ugly territory. It hasn’t been this bad since the start of the 2008-09 “event”.

$BPNYA, NYSE Bullish Percent Index

Crazy sharp drop. Once again, hasn’t been this bad since ’08-09.

$BPSPX, S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index

Same as above

$NYSI, NYSE Summation Index

It’s in the negative territory (dotted line), but I’m most interested here in how it correlates to market prices. It’s pretty good for showing direction but not the size of the move.

$VIX, Volatility Index

An obvious inverse relationship here.

Looks very choppy, sort of a deciding moment.

I think most of these indicate there will be 4-12 weeks of basing action and a continuation of the bull market, but wouldn’t bet real money on it.

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$SPX $SPY $$ A Lost Decade? Not With 426% Return It’s Not

Phantasmix — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 22:19:59 +0000

Investors have heard many decry the decade of the 2000s as the “lost decade.” A dollar invested in the S&P 500 on the first trading day of 1999 saw it worth just 65 cents a decade later (3/31/09 is our cutoff point). This “underperformance” is seen by many as a failure of the U.S. economic engine.

If we look at the Top 20 performers of the S&P 500 during that same time period, we see a vastly different story. Instead of a 35% loss during that time, the Top 20 earned an average 426% return in stock price, excluding dividends. What accounted for this differential performance during this “lost decade?”

The rest is kind of TLDR, but if you’re curious, the source:
Lessons from S&P Recession Survivors [PDF]

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$$ $SPX $SPY Bear Flag

Phantasmix — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 05:29:13 +0000

A bear flag on S&P index. Frankly I expected something like a June bottom, but it doesn’t look like that so far. Maybe it will move up after a quick retest?

I haven’t sold anything yet, still holding March SPY puts, April SPY calls and some now-penny-stockish t*rds BEE and LYG.

Click to enlarge

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$$ SPX $SPY Correction Update, Bull Market or Not?

Phantasmix — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 19:17:05 +0000

3 months of advances on SPX was erased in 13 sessions, or 3 weeks.
They say it’s a sign of a bull market – small steady advances and quick vicious sell-offs.

There hasn’t been a whole lot of institutional buying so far.

As predicted, I’m tempted to hold SPY puts over the weekend, but last 12 Mondays in a row were UP days. What to do, what to do…

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$SPX $SPY Weekly Chart Update

Phantasmix — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 01:19:43 +0000

1,050 on $SPX or thereabouts is a very logical support zone – 34ema and 50ema on the weekly are around there, and stochastics are getting close to oversold finally… Curiously, the top box stochastics – long-term – haven’t moved much.

Around that level, or $105 on SPY, I will sell my SPY puts and will add to the calls. Once it gets to $105, it’ll be tempting to hold to $103, but that’s just greedy.

Phantasmix Stock Market Blog » • SPX S&P 500

S&P Futures Chart $$ $SPY $SPX

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The Lesser of Two Evils: $SPY vs Individual Stocks $$

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S&P 500 vs TSX

1-Year Chart

5-Year Chart

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$$ $SPY $DIA Market Internals, Charts

$BKX, Bank Index

$BPNYA, NYSE Bullish Percent Index

$BPSPX, S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index

$NYSI, NYSE Summation Index

$VIX, Volatility Index

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