Phantasmix Stock Market Blog

Okay, 3 words: I lack it!

I’ve had this “master plan” for about 3 weeks now, but unfortunately don’t seem to have any patience and just can’t stick to the plan (more on that later).

Got mired in a lot of new trades the last couple of days. 7 active trading positions right now.

Let’s rationalize each one:

• (SKF: 49.88 +1.32%) – still have 50% of the position. It closed at the high of the day. Will keep for now.
• (LVS: 47.04 -0.23%) – low volume today, green on a red market day, but it was red on a very green Friday. Don’t understand the stock. Had a chance to get out this morning with a tiny profit, but held. Should cover this week.
• (VLO: 21.38 -0.97%) – disappointing so far, but I have no problems with the fundamentals of this company, and believe it will go higher soon. Willing to hold until it gains.
• (PLCE: 46.665 -0.90%) – 1/2 the normal volume today, end of day looks like short covering to me. I will hold this one until it fills the gap up from last week.
• (MOS: 46.61 +2.04%) – new short. I have no conviction that I’m right here, but my position is very small (50x). Target $95-100.
• (QLD: 48.59 -1.26%) – this one was scary, I bought it mid-day today, I believe close enough to the bottom of the day. Moneyflow is showing that today money’s leaving (QID: 36.37 +1.28%) (ultra short QQQQ) and is coming in to QLD. The ratio of buy/sells is 107/100. Last Friday SKF was being bought on weakness with the ratio 104/100 and look where it is today. Hopefully QLD will follow suit, however I realize it’s an extremely small sample, statistically Moneyflow is the one indicator I’ll keep track of from now on.
• (JCP: 26.27 +1.27%) – had a chance to get out for a profit today, but convinced it has more downside. Should it go up tomorrow, I will not cover, want at least 2 points on it.

Ok, so the plan.

1. I want to exit at least 4 positions for a gain this week.
2. Must not rush into anything as I usually do.
3. Pick a stock (or ETF, *sigh*) and try to time an ideal entry, then go all in. I want more reward with less trading. I must be certain technically, so no this “no conviction” stuff.

These are the rarely looked at weekly charts. I’m trying to remove the daily noise, need to stop over-trading. Maybe holding longer but for a bigger reward is a better strategy. (I’m contemplating whether I should bother wrecking my nerves with the UYG-or-XLF trade tomorrow. Maybe instead, I should wait for SKF to bottom and average down.)

The only thing that’s just starting – barely – to look in favor of the UYG/XLF is MACD. Just barely.

For some reason I’m optimistic about the market tomorrow. I expect an up day, which means my current positions will suffer. I don’t have much time to trade this week, hopefully I can squeeze in a trade or two.

I’m going to be paying attention to (UYG: 49.86 -1.23%) and (XLF: 13.835 -0.68%). I want to trade them on the long side, as counter-parties to my current (SKF: 49.88 +1.32%) position. That’s breaking my “No Proshares ETFs” rule, but since I don’t want to give up on SKF yet, I feel this is my only choice to balance out this stupid trade.

So – daytrade UYG or XLF. Then, one day soon, I’ll be out of SKF and will never touch a Proshares ETF, ever again.