Phantasmix Stock Market Blog

What are analyst opinions really worth and do they help to make a decision? Below are actual analyst ratings for a stock I will reveal in the comments for this post. Judging by these numbers alone, what would you say the stock is worth?

As you can see, opinions vary wildly. Yahoo usually evens out all these estimate, and shows a “1y Target Estimate”, which is $6.83 in this case.

So… pick a number, then click to see if you guessed.

22-Aug-08 Reiterated Wedbush Morgan Hold $10 -> $6
22-Aug-08 Downgrade Roth Capital Buy -> Hold $11 -> $5
22-Aug-08 Downgrade Robert W. Baird Outperform -> Neutral $13 -> $8
22-Aug-08 Downgrade Friedman Billings Outperform -> Mkt Perform $10 -> $6
22-Aug-08 Downgrade DA Davidson Buy -> Neutral $14 -> $6
22-Aug-08 Downgrade BB&T Capital Mkts Buy -> Hold
08-Aug-08 Reiterated Wedbush Morgan Hold $11 -> $10
31-Jul-08 Reiterated Roth Capital Buy $13 -> $11
30-Jul-08 Initiated Pali Research Buy $10
23-May-08 Reiterated Wedbush Morgan Hold $12 -> $11
23-May-08 Reiterated Roth Capital Buy $14 -> $13
23-May-08 Reiterated Friedman Billings Outperform $15 -> $14
23-May-08 Downgrade Piper Jaffray Buy -> Neutral
12-May-08 Downgrade Citigroup Buy -> Sell $14.50 -> $9
09-May-08 Reiterated Friedman Billings Outperform $16 -> $15
08-Apr-08 Upgrade Wachovia Mkt Perform -> Outperform
14-Mar-08 Reiterated Friedman Billings Outperform $15 -> $16
18-Jan-08 Reiterated Friedman Billings Outperform $19 -> $15
11-Jan-08 Reiterated Wedbush Morgan Hold $16 -> $14
11-Jan-08 Reiterated Caris & Company Below Average $12 -> $11
10-Jan-08 Reiterated Roth Capital Buy $17 -> $14

• All of us, from time to time, need a plunge into freedom and novelty, after which routine and discipline will seem delightful by contrast.
• Modesty and unselfishness – these are the virtues which men praise – and pass by.
• Business is a combination of war and sport.
• In literature as in love, we are astonished at what is chosen by others.
• Old age is far more than white hair, wrinkles, the feeling that it is too late and the game finished, that the stage belongs to the rising generations. The true evil is not the weakening of the body, but the indifference of the soul.
• A marriage without conflicts is almost as inconceivable as a nation without crises.

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The stock market appears to follow a 10-year cycle. During the first half of the decade equity prices on average do not increase, however in the second half they clearly do. In addition, during the 20th century U.S. equities have demonstrated very good performance in years ending with the number 5 (e.g. 1975, 1985 or 1995). Their average profit amounted to 34.61%. That equals half of the average profit for the entire decade! There were no losing years. On the other hand with years ending in 7 there were often price slumps.

More details at the source: http://www.seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_dekad.html